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Global Markets in Q3 2026: A Quarter in Review and the Road to Year-End

Global equities made further progress in the third quarter of 2026. World stock indices rose around 3% over the quarter and are now up more than 12% year-to-date, sitting just below their all-time highs. Corporate earnings continued to support markets, with S&P 500 earnings growth for the year expected to exceed 30%. AI-related investment also remained a key driver. Energy was the leading sector. Performance varied between regions: South Korea’s KOSPI eased back after a very strong run earlier in the year. Bonds and commodities were more volatile. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude up about 40% over the quarter, taking it back above $100 a barrel. Partly as a result, inflation worries returned. In September the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. Government bond yields rose across major markets. The US 10-year yield went above 5% for the first time since 2007, and yields in Germany, France and the UK reached their highest levels in 17 to 19 years. In currencies, the yen recovered some ground after intervention in late July, while the US dollar firmed against the euro and the Swiss franc. Looking ahead to Q4, research houses remain broadly constructive but cautious. Erste Group’s Q4 strategy expects both the Fed and the ECB to raise rates again in December, with bond yields staying around current levels and a firmer dollar. It also sees a positive outlook for equities, though with wide differences between sectors and countries. Barclays still prefers equities to bonds, but with notably less conviction than earlier in the year. It cites stock markets near record highs and rising government debt levels as reasons for caution. BlackRock continues to favour durable income from short- and medium-dated bonds and credit over long-dated government debt, and it points to bottlenecks in AI infrastructure as a key theme. Across these outlooks, the common themes are interest rates staying higher for longer, energy prices and geopolitics remaining important variables, and continued differences in performance across regions and asset classes. As we approach year-end, Lochburn Capital will continue to follow developments across global markets and to maintain our relationships with the professional intermediaries and industry contacts in our network. We share this commentary for general information only, as a summary of publicly available research, and it should not be read as a view on, or a reference to, any particular investment. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice, or a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or investment. It is intended solely for qualified professional investment intermediaries outside of the UK, USA or other restricted jurisdictions. You should not rely on this content in making any investment decision but should obtain relevant and specific professional advice. Lochburn Capital International Limited accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from reliance on this content. Sources: Reuters (Q3 2026 market review, 30 Sep 2026), Federal Reserve FOMC statement (16 Sep 2026), Erste Group Research (Global Strategy 4Q 2026), Barclays Private Bank (Global Outlook), BlackRock Investment Institute (2026 Midyear Global Outlook).

Global Markets at the Half-Year Mark: A H1 2026 Review and What Could Come Next

A stunning view of the Brooklyn Bridge and New York City's skyline at sunset.

The first half of 2026 delivered a strong but uneven ride for investors. Global equities climbed roughly 10-11%, with Japan a standout at +17% and emerging markets surging around 22% on the back of AI-hardware exposure in Taiwan, South Korea and China. Much of the gain was driven by resilient corporate earnings and continued AI-related capital spending, though US tech names saw a bumpier, more selective rotation as the half progressed. Elsewhere, the picture was more turbulent. The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, struck a notably hawkish tone on inflation, keeping Treasury yields elevated. The US dollar strengthened while the yen touched a 40-year low, and commodities whipsawed — oil fell sharply in Q2 as Middle East risk premiums faded, while gold and silver gave back earlier gains. Heading into H2, major research houses are largely constructive but selective. J.P. Morgan’s mid-year outlook, titled “The tug of war continues,” points to a continued upward path for equities alongside higher yields, a bullish dollar and modestly wider credit spreads. Goldman Sachs has maintained a pro-risk stance, having forecast an 11% global equity return over a 12-month horizon, while flagging China’s growth near 4.8%. BlackRock’s outlook centers on its “Micro is macro” theme, highlighting over $800 billion in AI-related capital expenditure as the dominant market driver, and favouring shorter-duration bonds and active credit selection over long-dated debt. The common thread: normalising rate expectations, continued regional and asset-class dispersion, and a shift toward active, selective positioning rather than broad market exposure. Whichever of these paths plays out in the second half of the year, Lochburn Capital remains focused on connecting our intermediary partners with a broad range of investment opportunities through our network of product providers and capital markets partners. From private credit and structured products to ETFs and capital raising support, we aim to provide access to a diverse range of solutions that may be appropriate across a variety of market conditions, helping our partners navigate an evolving and often fragmented investment landscape. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice, or a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or investment. It is intended solely for qualified professional investment intermediaries outside of the UK, USA or other restricted jurisdictions. You should not rely on this content in making any investment decision but should obtain relevant and specific professional advice. Lochburn Capital International Limited accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from reliance on this content. Sources: J.P. Morgan Global Research (Mid-Year Market Outlook, Jul 2026), Goldman Sachs Research, BlackRock Investment Institute (2026 Midyear Global Outlook), Saxo Bank half-year report (Jun 30, 2026).

Lochburn Capital 2025 Structured Investment Outlook

This piece looks at some of the broad themes seen across the structured investment market during 2025, including the interest rate environment, the range of underlying assets in use and the variety of product structures available in the market. This content is for general information only and is intended solely for professional investment intermediaries. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation regarding any investment.

Structured Investment: Meeting the Need

Structured investments are products whose returns are linked to the performance of one or more underlying assets, such as an equity index, a basket of shares or interest rates. Their terms, features and risks vary widely from one product to another, and they are generally considered by professional intermediaries as one of many asset classes available in the wider market. This content is for general information only and is intended solely for professional investment intermediaries. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation regarding any investment.